The Suffrage Oath

Proclamation No. 1

Given the consequential nature of the upcoming 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections, I declare the observance of the Suffrage Oath, effective Nov. 5, 2018.

In summary, 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats are on the ballot on Nov. 6. Outside of Washington D.C., 6,665 state positions are up for election. 75 out of the 435 House seats are competitive races, and each of them represent about 700,000 people. In total, about 50 million U.S. citizens live in a competitive congressional district.

The Democratic Party must win at least 23 seats to capture the House (Paz and Kramer). As for the Senate, Democrats have a one in six chance (16.8 percent) of winning control. In order for the Democrats to take over the Senate, they would need to win at least one Republican-leaning-state–Nebraska, Tennessee, and Texas are the three most competitive—in addition to winning two very difficult toss-up states: Nevada and Missouri (FiveThirtyEight).

The 2016 Presidential Election has taught experts that polls are not always the most reliable predictors (Atanasov and Joseph). The only trustworthy method of ensuring the results of democratic elections is to physically go out and cast one’s ballot. In keeping with the aforementioned understanding, I will henceforth vote in every election cycle.

Works Cited

Paz, Isabella G. and Kramer, Margaret. “How to Register to Vote in Each State.” The New York Times, 6 Oct. 2018, https://nyti.ms/2IFirG6.

“Forecasting the race for the Senate.” FiveThirtyEight, 5 Nov. 2018, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=rrpromo.

Atanasov, Pavel Joseph, Regina. “Which election forecast was the most accurate? Or rather: The least wrong?” The Washington Post, 30 Nov. 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/30/which-election-forecast-was-the-most-accurate-or-rather-the-least-wrong/?utm_term=.7b02f06d6098.

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